METROPOLITAN
DIVISION TEAM
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2016-17
RESULTS
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BEST
CASE SCENARIO
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WORST
CASE SCENARIO
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WASHINGTON
CAPITALS
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-55-19-8
-1st in Metropolitan
-Lost in 2nd round of playoffs
to Pittsburgh
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The Capitals may not be as deep as some past seasons,
but they are very top heavy. If their top six can produce at the level
they’re capable of, and Braden Holtby continues to be an elite goaltender,
Washington can win it all. Yes they have yet to get past the second round of
the playoffs in the Alexander Ovechkin era, but maybe they won’t face the
Penguins in the playoffs this year, or maybe they beat them in the playoffs
for the first time since 1994. They won’t have the top record in the league,
and they may not win the Metropolitan, but those things haven’t helped
Washington the past two seasons either. Their blueline is thin, but if
Ovechkin, TJ Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Andrei
Burakovsky play well, they’ll mask that deficiency. Ovechkin needs to get
back to north of 45 goals this season. He surely needs more than 16
even-strength tallies.
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Yes the Capitals have lost some talent, but I can’t
imagine they’ll miss the playoffs. Even if Holtby takes a step back, he’s
still very good. The blueline lost Karl Alzner (MTL), Nate Schmidt (VGK),
Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR) from last season, and Brooks Orpik isn’t exactly a
spring chicken. The Capitals are capable of beating teams in high scoring
affairs, but that’s not a recipe for long term success in the playoffs. With
three seasons left at $10 million per after 2017-18, Caps fans are hoping
last season was a blip on the radar for Ovie, and not a harbinger of
production levels to come. Another early playoff exit could put Barry Trotz
on the hot seat, and with the way the Metro is, that’s very possible.
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PITTSBURGH
PENGUINS
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-50-21-11
-2nd in Metropolitan
-Won Stanley Cup over Nashville
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They are the two-time defending champions, and there’s no
reason they couldn’t make it three in a row. The Penguins return most of the
championship team from last season, and they’ll have Kris Letang back in his
rightful spot on the blueline. Sidney Crosby continues to be a top point
producer in the league. Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are also coming off of
strong seasons, Justin Schultz has emerged as an alternate puck-moving D-man
option to Letang, and Mike Sullivan is one of the game’s top coaches at the
moment. They’ll miss Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen down the middle, but they
have plenty of talent to overcome that. If Jake Guentzel can pick up where he
left off in the playoffs, it’s not even fair how many offensive options that
Pittsburgh can throw at you. Matt Murray is a Top 10
goalie, and has two Stanley Cups entering his second regular season.
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Short of a disease that spreads rampantly through the
Penguins locker room and keeps players out long stretches, they won’t miss
the playoffs. Even if Matt Murray is out for an extended period of time
(which means relying on Antti Niemi), Pittsburgh is strong enough at forward
and on the blueline to compensate. Even if the locker room misses the
presence of Marc Andre Fleury (and they will on some level), there are too
many winners in that room to let it affect them too much. The Penguins roster
seems to have guys that always get hurt, but it never seems to be at the same
time. It’s possible that the long championship runs of the past two seasons
catch up with them and it results in a first round exit, especially with how
tough the Metropolitan Division is.
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COLUMBUS
BLUE
JACKETS
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-50-24-8
-3rd
in Metropolitan
-Lost
in 1st round of playoffs to Pittsburgh
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I’m
real tempted to put the Blue Jackets in the elite class, especially after a
50 win/108 point season. However, this is a franchise that has never finished
higher than third in their division, and they’ve never seen the second round
of the playoffs. They are an improved squad with the addition of Artemi
Panarin up front, and their young blueline should be better with another year
of experience. Nick Foligno and Cam Atkinson need to be reliable sources of
scoring again. They’re also hoping Josh Anderson and Alexander Wennberg
continue their progression from last season. I think Columbus could get as
far as the Eastern Conference Finals this season, which would be a huge step
in the right direction for the franchise and a team that shades on the
younger side.
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I
don’t think they’re in danger of missing the playoffs, but Sergei Bobrovskiy
played out of his mind last season. Even a little bit of a descent back to
earth could cost Columbus some points in the standings. Their bottom six is
only okay. Getting Panarin for Brandon Saad was good, but there’s always the
chance Panarin’s numbers decline noticeably without having Patrick Kane as a
linemate. Even though it seems that John Tortorella has softened his edges a
bit, there’s always the chance he snaps and loses the locker room. Because of
the playoff format and this division being the deepest in the league, the
Blue Jackets could find themselves 0 for 4 in the first round of the playoffs
by the end of 2018, no matter where they finish.
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NEW
YORK
RANGERS
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-48-28-6
-4th in Metropolitan
-Lost in 2nd round of playoffs to
Ottawa
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As a Rangers fan, I’d love to
type the phrase “Stanley Cup contenders” here, but I can’t. Yes they added
Kevin Shattenkirk, and that will help them big time. But they are still thin
at Center after Mika Zibanejad (Kevin Hayes, JT Miller, David Desharnais
being the other projected centers) with the departures of Derek Stepan (ARI)
and Oscar Lindberg (VGK). Henrik Lundqvist had his first average season, but
bounced back strongly in the playoffs. I can see the Rangers getting to the
second round of the playoffs again, maybe they could even sneak in to the
Eastern Conference Finals if they cross over to the Atlantic bracket again.
But I can’t see them making it out of the East this season. Lundqvist has had
to carry them through many playoff campaigns, and he is capable of doing that
until he shows he can’t, but that candle is going to burn out soon.
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The Rangers shouldn’t fall below
the Wild Card mix. But with Carolina & Philadelphia improving, and an
Islanders bounce back being very possible, the Rangers don’t have a margin
for error. If Lundqvist misses any time, Ondrej Pavelec is bit of a riskier
fallback option than their past two back-ups (Antti Raanta & Cam Talbot).
If Anthony DeAngelo isn’t ready to play most nights, that means both Nick
Holden & Marc Staal will be playing every night (and one of them will
become the Garden Faithful’s annual whipping boy). The Blueshirts could have
a tough time with teams who are strong down the middle. The Rangers should
get in to the playoffs, but it could be a short stay. Alain Vigneault may be
on his way out if that happens.
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NEW
YORK
ISLANDERS
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-41-29-12
-5th in Metropolitan
-Missed playoffs
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Let’s be real here,
regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not, a winning season for the
Islanders is signing Captain (and face of the franchise) John Tavares to a
long-term extension sometime during the season. The longer it takes Tavares
to sign, the less likely it is he sticks around (although, many thought that
about Steven Stamkos and he stayed in Tampa Bay). It appears that a solid arena situation for
the future (which the franchise lacks at the moment) is at the top of
Tavares’ concerns, but that’s a whole other mess. On the ice, the addition of
Jordan Eberle to Johnny T’s wing should give the Islanders a legitimate top
line along with Anders Lee. Andrew Ladd showed some life towards the end of
last season, and they’re expecting youngsters Matthew Barzal, Anthony
Beauvillier, and Josh Ho-Sang to contribute. The playoffs are within reach
for the Isles, but I can’t see them advancing with Jaroslav Halak &
Thomas Greiss as their goaltenders.
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On the ice, it would be
missing the playoffs again. Their blueline is good with Nick Leddy &
Johnny Boychuk on the top pairing, but they don’t have NHL ready depth to
deal with injuries on the back end beyond what they’ll be dressing every
night. But the worst case scenario for the Isles would be debating whether or
not to deal him at the deadline if it’s not looking good, or keep him and
potentially lose him for nothing. John Tavares is a top player in the league
and doesn’t get the attention he deserves. If he decided to leave, I don’t
think many would blame him. Their home arena situation has been a mess for
years, and they’ve let linemates he had chemistry with leave (Kyle Okposo,
Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau). If there’s no #91 in Brooklyn (or Queens, or
Belmont, or Nassau Coliseum) for the upcoming seasons, the Islanders may find themselves in the leagues doldrums
for years to come. The once proud franchise and their fans deserve better.
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PHILADELPHIA
FLYERS
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-39-33-10
-6th in Metropolitan
-Missed playoffs
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A return to the playoffs and a first round upset
seems like a good ceiling for Philadelphia this season. Second overall pick
Nolan Patrick will get every opportunity to anchor the second line, but they
have Sean Couturier and Jori Lehtera that can step in if Patrick struggles.
Getting that far would require bounce back seasons from both Claude Giroux
and Shayne Gostisbehere, and a little more from Jakub Voracek. Wayne Simmonds
was his usual self on the power play (16 goals), and their young blueline is
trending in the right direction (hello Ivan Provorov). Playing the hot hand
in net can carry you for the short term, but either Brian Elliott or Michal
Neuvirth need to emerge as a legitimate top option that can play most nights
if they want to have more than mediocre success.
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Claude Giroux doesn’t bounce back, Shayne
Gostisbehere’s 2016-17 season was more than a sophomore slump (say what you
want about +/- as a stat, but a top defenseman should never be -21), and
Brian Elliott’s struggles continue on the East Coast. With Carolina making
upgrades, Philly is going to be in a thick race for a wild card spot, and
could miss out on the playoffs again. If that happens, Dave Hakstoll could be
out as head coach. Brayden Schenn (STL) left an offensive void that needs to
be filled (third on the team in scoring last season), and they’ll miss
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (VGK) on their Penalty Kill and shutdown line, a
role they’re hoping Lehtera can fill. Not to scare Flyers fans, but if things go really South this season, I
bet they could get a serious haul for Wayne Simmonds, especially with a year
remaining on his contract.
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CAROLINA
HURRICANES
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-36-31-15
-7th in Metropolitan
-Missed playoffs
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This is going to
be a popular “dark horse” pick to make the playoffs (can it be a dark horse
pick if a lot of people are picking them?). With the upgrades they’ve made in
net (Scott Darling), up front (Justin Williams, Marcus Kruger), and on an
already deep blueline (Trevor van Riemsdyk), why shouldn’t they be a buzz
pick to make the postseason for the first time since 2009. They can certainly
make the playoffs this season, but hoping for anything beyond the first round
might be rushing it a bit considering the division they call home. That being
said, we all know Colorado is desperate to deal Matt Duchene and wants a top
tier D-man as a centerpiece in return. Carolina has that in spades, so if
they acquire Duchene, then the expectation level goes up (but we could play that
“what-if” game with every team). A return playoff appearance would spike the
tailgating numbers in the PNC Arena parking lots.
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The Carolina
postseason party bus doesn’t depart for another season. Again, because of the
division, it is very tough to climb and gain ground among the top teams.
They’re not better than Pittsburgh, Washington, or Columbus for sure (and you
could make an argument for the Rangers in that group), so they already have
to fight for a wild card spot among a bunch of teams. If Scott Darling can’t
handle a starter's workload, Cam Ward is adequate, but the days of him
putting a team on his shoulder are long gone. The Hurricanes are on the cusp,
and sometimes that causes franchises to make knee jerk decisions for the
short term ignoring an eye for the long term. The good news is GM Ron Francis
seems to be a patient man. With the Rangers and Capitals seemingly
regressing, the Canes window to return to the playoffs will be much wider
next season.
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NEW
JERSEY
DEVILS
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-28-40-14
-8th in Metropolitan
-Missed playoffs
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The Devils lack the blueline (even with the addition of Will Butcher)
to be considered a true playoff contender. If things go really, really well
for them, they could certainly be in the mix for a wild card spot in the
season’s final weeks and play the role of spoiler before fading. Watching
2017 first overall pick Nico Hischier will be fun, and the additions of
Marcus Johansson (WAS), Brian Boyle (TOR) and Drew Stafford (BOS – a typical
Devils signing) will help, but they are still a couple of pieces away from
being a true playoff threat. That’s not a bad thing when you’re a franchise
in true rebuild mode, and that’s the plan GM Ray Shero should be following
along. I don’t think there are any expectations of New Jersey being a real
playoff contender, so improved chemistry among their core (Taylor Hall, Kyle
Palmieri, Adam Henrique) and development of their young talent (Hischier,
Butcher, Pavel Zacha) is what matters most this season.
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The Devils didn’t have the worst record in the league last season, but
they ended up winning the draft lottery. They could easily be among the
league’s worst teams (along with Colorado, Vancouver, Arizona & Detroit),
so it would stink to have the opposite happen (finish with the worst record
and lose the #1 pick to someone else) for New Jersey. An injury to Nico
Hischier would also be a terrible blow, especially because he’s the first
electric talent the franchise has had since Ilya Kovalchuk. If Taylor Hall
fails to crack the 30 goal for the first time in his career (or stay healthy
in enough games to even have a chance at it), that would be a bit of a bummer
since there is a little more talent on the roster this season. They will miss
Travis Zajac for the first couple of months. If they sustain any other major
injuries up front before he returns, the Devils season may be best served by
being lottery bound anyway.
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