PUCKING THOUGHTS - BEST CASE/WORST CASE SCENARIOS - METROPOLITAN DIVISION

By Adam Bernard

With the 2017-18 NHL Pre-Season a little under a month away, it's time to start looking ahead to what to expect for the upcoming campaign. With every team, the obvious best case scenario is hoisting the Stanley Cup in the late Spring. On the flip side, the obvious worst case scenario would be catastrophic injuries and missing the playoffs. I've gone division by division and giving each team's realistic ceiling (not every team is an actual Cup contender) and floor for the 2017-18 season. Today is the fourth and last part of the series as we take a look at the Metropolitan Division. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

METROPOLITAN DIVISION TEAM	2016-17 RESULTS	BEST CASE SCENARIO	WORST CASE SCENARIO
WASHINGTON CAPITALS	-55-19-8 -1st in Metropolitan -Lost in 2nd round of playoffs to Pittsburgh	The Capitals may not be as deep as some past seasons, but they are very top heavy. If their top six can produce at the level they’re capable of, and Braden Holtby continues to be an elite goaltender, Washington can win it all. Yes they have yet to get past the second round of the playoffs in the Alexander Ovechkin era, but maybe they won’t face the Penguins in the playoffs this year, or maybe they beat them in the playoffs for the first time since 1994. They won’t have the top record in the league, and they may not win the Metropolitan, but those things haven’t helped Washington the past two seasons either. Their blueline is thin, but if Ovechkin, TJ Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Andrei Burakovsky play well, they’ll mask that deficiency. Ovechkin needs to get back to north of 45 goals this season. He surely needs more than 16 even-strength tallies.	Yes the Capitals have lost some talent, but I can’t imagine they’ll miss the playoffs. Even if Holtby takes a step back, he’s still very good. The blueline lost Karl Alzner (MTL), Nate Schmidt (VGK), Kevin Shattenkirk (NYR) from last season, and Brooks Orpik isn’t exactly a spring chicken. The Capitals are capable of beating teams in high scoring affairs, but that’s not a recipe for long term success in the playoffs. With three seasons left at $10 million per after 2017-18, Caps fans are hoping last season was a blip on the radar for Ovie, and not a harbinger of production levels to come. Another early playoff exit could put Barry Trotz on the hot seat, and with the way the Metro is, that’s very possible.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS	-50-21-11 -2nd in Metropolitan -Won Stanley Cup over Nashville	They are the two-time defending champions, and there’s no reason they couldn’t make it three in a row. The Penguins return most of the championship team from last season, and they’ll have Kris Letang back in his rightful spot on the blueline. Sidney Crosby continues to be a top point producer in the league. Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are also coming off of strong seasons, Justin Schultz has emerged as an alternate puck-moving D-man option to Letang, and Mike Sullivan is one of the game’s top coaches at the moment. They’ll miss Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen down the middle, but they have plenty of talent to overcome that. If Jake Guentzel can pick up where he left off in the playoffs, it’s not even fair how many offensive options that Pittsburgh can throw at you. Matt Murray is a Top 10 goalie, and has two Stanley Cups entering his second regular season.	Short of a disease that spreads rampantly through the Penguins locker room and keeps players out long stretches, they won’t miss the playoffs. Even if Matt Murray is out for an extended period of time (which means relying on Antti Niemi), Pittsburgh is strong enough at forward and on the blueline to compensate. Even if the locker room misses the presence of Marc Andre Fleury (and they will on some level), there are too many winners in that room to let it affect them too much. The Penguins roster seems to have guys that always get hurt, but it never seems to be at the same time. It’s possible that the long championship runs of the past two seasons catch up with them and it results in a first round exit, especially with how tough the Metropolitan Division is.
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS	-50-24-8 -3rd in Metropolitan -Lost in 1st round of playoffs to Pittsburgh	I’m real tempted to put the Blue Jackets in the elite class, especially after a 50 win/108 point season. However, this is a franchise that has never finished higher than third in their division, and they’ve never seen the second round of the playoffs. They are an improved squad with the addition of Artemi Panarin up front, and their young blueline should be better with another year of experience. Nick Foligno and Cam Atkinson need to be reliable sources of scoring again. They’re also hoping Josh Anderson and Alexander Wennberg continue their progression from last season. I think Columbus could get as far as the Eastern Conference Finals this season, which would be a huge step in the right direction for the franchise and a team that shades on the younger side.	I don’t think they’re in danger of missing the playoffs, but Sergei Bobrovskiy played out of his mind last season. Even a little bit of a descent back to earth could cost Columbus some points in the standings. Their bottom six is only okay. Getting Panarin for Brandon Saad was good, but there’s always the chance Panarin’s numbers decline noticeably without having Patrick Kane as a linemate. Even though it seems that John Tortorella has softened his edges a bit, there’s always the chance he snaps and loses the locker room. Because of the playoff format and this division being the deepest in the league, the Blue Jackets could find themselves 0 for 4 in the first round of the playoffs by the end of 2018, no matter where they finish.
NEW YORK RANGERS	-48-28-6 -4th in Metropolitan -Lost in 2nd round of playoffs to Ottawa	As a Rangers fan, I’d love to type the phrase “Stanley Cup contenders” here, but I can’t. Yes they added Kevin Shattenkirk, and that will help them big time. But they are still thin at Center after Mika Zibanejad (Kevin Hayes, JT Miller, David Desharnais being the other projected centers) with the departures of Derek Stepan (ARI) and Oscar Lindberg (VGK). Henrik Lundqvist had his first average season, but bounced back strongly in the playoffs. I can see the Rangers getting to the second round of the playoffs again, maybe they could even sneak in to the Eastern Conference Finals if they cross over to the Atlantic bracket again. But I can’t see them making it out of the East this season. Lundqvist has had to carry them through many playoff campaigns, and he is capable of doing that until he shows he can’t, but that candle is going to burn out soon.	The Rangers shouldn’t fall below the Wild Card mix. But with Carolina & Philadelphia improving, and an Islanders bounce back being very possible, the Rangers don’t have a margin for error. If Lundqvist misses any time, Ondrej Pavelec is bit of a riskier fallback option than their past two back-ups (Antti Raanta & Cam Talbot). If Anthony DeAngelo isn’t ready to play most nights, that means both Nick Holden & Marc Staal will be playing every night (and one of them will become the Garden Faithful’s annual whipping boy). The Blueshirts could have a tough time with teams who are strong down the middle. The Rangers should get in to the playoffs, but it could be a short stay. Alain Vigneault may be on his way out if that happens.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS	-41-29-12 -5th in Metropolitan -Missed playoffs	Let’s be real here, regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not, a winning season for the Islanders is signing Captain (and face of the franchise) John Tavares to a long-term extension sometime during the season. The longer it takes Tavares to sign, the less likely it is he sticks around (although, many thought that about Steven Stamkos and he stayed in Tampa Bay).  It appears that a solid arena situation for the future (which the franchise lacks at the moment) is at the top of Tavares’ concerns, but that’s a whole other mess. On the ice, the addition of Jordan Eberle to Johnny T’s wing should give the Islanders a legitimate top line along with Anders Lee. Andrew Ladd showed some life towards the end of last season, and they’re expecting youngsters Matthew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, and Josh Ho-Sang to contribute. The playoffs are within reach for the Isles, but I can’t see them advancing with Jaroslav Halak & Thomas Greiss as their goaltenders.	On the ice, it would be missing the playoffs again. Their blueline is good with Nick Leddy & Johnny Boychuk on the top pairing, but they don’t have NHL ready depth to deal with injuries on the back end beyond what they’ll be dressing every night. But the worst case scenario for the Isles would be debating whether or not to deal him at the deadline if it’s not looking good, or keep him and potentially lose him for nothing. John Tavares is a top player in the league and doesn’t get the attention he deserves. If he decided to leave, I don’t think many would blame him. Their home arena situation has been a mess for years, and they’ve let linemates he had chemistry with leave (Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau). If there’s no #91 in Brooklyn (or Queens, or Belmont, or Nassau Coliseum) for the upcoming seasons, the Islanders  may find themselves in the leagues doldrums for years to come. The once proud franchise and their fans deserve better.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS	-39-33-10 -6th in Metropolitan -Missed playoffs	A return to the playoffs and a first round upset seems like a good ceiling for Philadelphia this season. Second overall pick Nolan Patrick will get every opportunity to anchor the second line, but they have Sean Couturier and Jori Lehtera that can step in if Patrick struggles. Getting that far would require bounce back seasons from both Claude Giroux and Shayne Gostisbehere, and a little more from Jakub Voracek. Wayne Simmonds was his usual self on the power play (16 goals), and their young blueline is trending in the right direction (hello Ivan Provorov). Playing the hot hand in net can carry you for the short term, but either Brian Elliott or Michal Neuvirth need to emerge as a legitimate top option that can play most nights if they want to have more than mediocre success.	Claude Giroux doesn’t bounce back, Shayne Gostisbehere’s 2016-17 season was more than a sophomore slump (say what you want about +/- as a stat, but a top defenseman should never be -21), and Brian Elliott’s struggles continue on the East Coast. With Carolina making upgrades, Philly is going to be in a thick race for a wild card spot, and could miss out on the playoffs again. If that happens, Dave Hakstoll could be out as head coach. Brayden Schenn (STL) left an offensive void that needs to be filled (third on the team in scoring last season), and they’ll miss Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (VGK) on their Penalty Kill and shutdown line, a role they’re hoping Lehtera can fill. Not to scare Flyers fans, but if things go really South this season, I bet they could get a serious haul for Wayne Simmonds, especially with a year remaining on  his contract.
CAROLINA HURRICANES	-36-31-15 -7th in Metropolitan -Missed playoffs	This is going to be a popular “dark horse” pick to make the playoffs (can it be a dark horse pick if a lot of people are picking them?). With the upgrades they’ve made in net (Scott Darling), up front (Justin Williams, Marcus Kruger), and on an already deep blueline (Trevor van Riemsdyk), why shouldn’t they be a buzz pick to make the postseason for the first time since 2009. They can certainly make the playoffs this season, but hoping for anything beyond the first round might be rushing it a bit considering the division they call home. That being said, we all know Colorado is desperate to deal Matt Duchene and wants a top tier D-man as a centerpiece in return. Carolina has that in spades, so if they acquire Duchene, then the expectation level goes up (but we could play that “what-if” game with every team). A return playoff appearance would spike the tailgating numbers in the PNC Arena parking lots.	The Carolina postseason party bus doesn’t depart for another season. Again, because of the division, it is very tough to climb and gain ground among the top teams. They’re not better than Pittsburgh, Washington, or Columbus for sure (and you could make an argument for the Rangers in that group), so they already have to fight for a wild card spot among a bunch of teams. If Scott Darling can’t handle a starter's workload, Cam Ward is adequate, but the days of him putting a team on his shoulder are long gone. The Hurricanes are on the cusp, and sometimes that causes franchises to make knee jerk decisions for the short term ignoring an eye for the long term. The good news is GM Ron Francis seems to be a patient man. With the Rangers and Capitals seemingly regressing, the Canes window to return to the playoffs will be much wider next season.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS	-28-40-14 -8th in Metropolitan -Missed playoffs	The Devils lack the blueline (even with the addition of Will Butcher) to be considered a true playoff contender. If things go really, really well for them, they could certainly be in the mix for a wild card spot in the season’s final weeks and play the role of spoiler before fading. Watching 2017 first overall pick Nico Hischier will be fun, and the additions of Marcus Johansson (WAS), Brian Boyle (TOR) and Drew Stafford (BOS – a typical Devils signing) will help, but they are still a couple of pieces away from being a true playoff threat. That’s not a bad thing when you’re a franchise in true rebuild mode, and that’s the plan GM Ray Shero should be following along. I don’t think there are any expectations of New Jersey being a real playoff contender, so improved chemistry among their core (Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique) and development of their young talent (Hischier, Butcher, Pavel Zacha) is what matters most this season.	The Devils didn’t have the worst record in the league last season, but they ended up winning the draft lottery. They could easily be among the league’s worst teams (along with Colorado, Vancouver, Arizona & Detroit), so it would stink to have the opposite happen (finish with the worst record and lose the #1 pick to someone else) for New Jersey. An injury to Nico Hischier would also be a terrible blow, especially because he’s the first electric talent the franchise has had since Ilya Kovalchuk. If Taylor Hall fails to crack the 30 goal for the first time in his career (or stay healthy in enough games to even have a chance at it), that would be a bit of a bummer since there is a little more talent on the roster this season. They will miss Travis Zajac for the first couple of months. If they sustain any other major injuries up front before he returns, the Devils season may be best served by being lottery bound anyway.